Women & Demographic Transition: The Interplay Between Birthrates & Development

The supermom: from working a 9-5 job to taking care of her kids, she can do it all. In fact, more often than not, this elusive ideal for modern women is just as fictional as the superheroes it is are named after. Women all over the world struggle to balance career aspirations with familial obligations. Beyond the home and the workplace, this conflict plays out in their country’s birthrates and consequently, their nation’s future.

Demographic researchers typically agree that the most stable fertility rate is just the replacement fertility rate—2.1 children born per woman.[i] However, few countries consistently achieve this rate, with many being stuck above or below. It is no coincidence that a country’s birth rate can be predicted by its level of development. Developed countries typically have a rate lower than the 2.1 rate required for replacement, while developing countries usually have a higher rate. Categories aside, both developed and developing countries alike have been working to achieve this perfect replacement in hopes of ensuring a brighter future for their citizens.[ii]

But while success can provide great rewards, failure comes with its own problems. Developing countries, such as Nigeria, have the opportunity to raise their standards of living and strengthen their economies by inducing a population boom. But if such population growth is mismanaged or happens too rapidly, they run the risk of simultaneously depleting finite resources while also creating high youth unemployment. Meanwhile, more developed countries with an aging population, like Germany, serve as a cautionary tale to those younger countries. Many of these nations—especially those with robust social welfare programs—will face the challenge of maintaining economic growth and supporting large amounts of retirees all with a shrinking labor force.

In order to navigate the demographic fluctuations associated with economic development, countries must carefully examine the role and reproductive rights of women in society, past and present.

Development, Technology, and Women

For most of human history, the primary responsibility of women was to bear and raise children. Around the world, it was not uncommon for women to have upwards of half a dozen kids. Kept in check by high death rates, high birthrates did not historically lead to a skyrocketing population. It wasn’t until the Industrial Revolution and its advancements in medicine and machinery that the death rate declined significantly in Western countries.[iii] These strides in technology supported the population boom that many developed countries experienced in the 19th century—and the subsequent bust that many of these countries are experiencing now.

In developed countries, the Industrial Age brought unprecedented strides in women’s rights. From winning suffrage to becoming leaders of nations and companies, these accomplishments shifted the role of women in society. For the first time, women were no longer confined to the home. Their independence was made possible by improved technology. For example, contraception allowed women to take control of their own bodies and family size, and also shifted perceptions of women in the workforce and in higher education. One can see this in the labor pool of countries like the US, which only had a 17% participation rate for working-age women in 1880, compared to more than 60% in 2000.[iv] Concurrently, the total fertility rate moved from 4 to 2.1.[v]

One of the primary reasons for this decline in birthrates in developed countries was the changing role of women during the last century. Women in developed countries started to get married and have children later and later in life, often times delaying marriage to take advantage of the education and career opportunities that opened up to them.[vi] This means that adults on average are having fewer children than their parents. While this may have dangerous ramifications for the future of these countries, it may also act as a blueprint for developing countries looking to reduce their own birth rate.

Following the Transition - Developing Countries

With almost 200 million people, Nigeria has the largest population in Africa and is still growing. In the mid-20th century, the country’s total fertility rate reached a peak of 6.78, but has since dropped to around 5.5 and is projected to continue to lower in the coming years.[vii] Nigeria and other developing countries with similar statistics are all potential candidates for experiencing a demographic dividend, the accelerated economic growth a country experiences due to having a majority working age population.[viii] Harnessing this potential, as many East Asian countries did in the 70s, could raise a country’s standard of living, GDP per capita, and quality of infrastructure, all while lowering poverty rates. While promoting a higher birth rate can lead to a better society for a country’s citizens, this growth is all contingent on a developing country’s ability to create a framework to support this population boom.[ix]

As observed by developed countries such as Sweden and Canada, one of the most effective ways to lower birthrates is to give women access to greater opportunities.[x] While in many developing countries like India, tradition calls for women to stay at home and raise children, removing this mindset and allowing women to pursue other paths would enable countries to not only increase their specialized labor pools, but also to create large economic gains. Governments are able to move toward this future by taking action like encouraging girls to stay in school, ensuring health care is available and rewarding businesses that hire women. By instituting such policies, governments of developing countries are one step closer to creating a better future for the next generation; without them, the future of these same countries could be quite bleak.

Unchecked growth would have economic, social, and environmental ramifications. When rapid population growth outpaces economic growth, the labor supply exceeds the demand. Such an imbalance leads to high youth unemployment and depressed wages.[xi] As a result of scarce opportunities for working-age people, the bloated labor force—which could have been used for the country’s advantage—might turn into a potential source of unrest and destabilization. Further, all nations, no matter how large, are limited by their scarce resources, whether farmland, coal, or the water table. If there are too many people and not enough resources to go around, countries and the quality of life for their citizens could further deteriorate. While this may seem like a scene from a dystopian movie, such alarming events, often times propelled by human interference, are real.

Stopping the Decline - Developed Countries

On the flip-side, many developed countries are facing a crisis of having an aging population. The proportion of people over the age of 80 is expected to rise from the current 1% of the population to 4% in 2050.[xii] This increase means that governments will have to adapt to the needs of an older populace, while simultaneously figuring out a sustainable method to provide them with a social safety net. As the number of older people eclipses the number of workers, the government might not be able to provide the benefits they need.[xiii]

In order to avoid such a future, governments can take action to boost the labor supply. One option open to aging nations is to allow the migration of younger migrants into the country.[xiv] While a viable option, rapid immigration often results in a xenophobic backlash that further strains societies. Look no further than the social disorder many European countries experienced after an influx of immigration that came with the refugee crisis.

Even still, increasing immigration does not address the underlying problem of low birth rates. Many young adults do not have children because of the sheer cost—from healthcare expenses, childcare costs, and school tuition—but also because of issues of employment flexibility and difficulties conceiving later in life.[xv] According to the Medical Director of the Center of Reproduction and Advanced Technology, Professor Geeta Nargund, to remedy this governments could support grants and tax breaks for families with children, institute paid maternal and paternal leave to help parents balance their careers and family, and provide healthcare education and assistance to couples who wish to have children.[xvi] Doing so would help developed countries avoid the pitfalls that come with an aging population structure.

Conclusion

Countries that have a fertility rate above 2.1 have the issue of managing a growing population, while countries with a rate below 2.1 have to deal with the problems associated with a shrinking population. In both, supporting women in the workplace and home will be an invaluable tool. If mishandled, either scenario could lead to chaos; however, if public policy is formulated thoughtfully, both have a path to improving the lives of citizens.

Illustration by Samantha Malzahn

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